12-November-2004 -- EWTNews Brief
NEW YORK, UNITED NATIONS, November 12 (CNA) - The
United Nations Population Division released another report recently that
predicts a large aging population and sharp declines in population growth. This
is the first UN report to look 300 years down the line, reported the Catholic
Family & Human Rights Institute.
The report, titled "World Population to 2300," states that these
predictions are mostly "guesses."
The report's "medium scenario" predicts a world population of 8.4
billion by 2200 after a peak of 9.2 billion in 2075.
Global population is expected to decline because many developed countries
will sustain a long-term growth rate, for up to 100 years, below the replacement
level fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, says the report. By 2045-2050,
"139 countries will have total fertility under 2.0," says the report
The report expects Europe to shrink from its current 728 million to 538
million by 2100.
One of the most alarming predictions in the report is that the world
population will experience a massive aging. Decreased fertility will shrivel the
proportion of children in the world population from 30 percent to 16 percent by
2100. This, together with increased life expectancy, will cause the median age
to rise from 26 years in 2000 to 50 years in 2300, and the proportion of those
aged 65 or over will rocket from 7 percent in 2000 to 32 percent in 2300.
The report also projects a great increase in population of the very old
(those aged 80 or older). Even by 2100 their population should rise to 11 times
the number in 2000, and by 2300 they will be 17 percent of the population,
contrasted with the current one percent.