Dear Colleague:
In the midst of demographic decline, there are indications of possible
renewal.
Steven W. Mosher
President
PRI Weekly Briefing
9 June 2006
Vol. 8 / No. 22
Signs of Hope
By Joseph A. D'Agostino
In this space, we often criticize and warn. This time, we will point to
some signs of hope and progress, at least in media discourse and people's
mentalities, on demographic issues. The crisis of falling birthrates
worldwide continues to get more and more attention from pundits and
politicians, as does the differentials in birthrates between different
demographic groups.
* In most Western European nations, the self-destructive disease of
political correctness has long prevented an honest debate about the wisdom
of large-scale Muslim immigration into Europe. Now, in the most
culturally influential European nation, France, there are signs that an
honest debate could soon begin in mainstream society. Les Mosquees de
Roissy (The Mosques of Roissy), a book by French nationalist political
leader Philippe de Villiers, is currently among the top ten best-selling
books in France. Given the high rate of Muslim immigration into the
country, the immigrants' high birthrate, and native Frenchmen's low
birthrate, de Villiers argues that Christians will one day have oppressed
minority "dhimmi" status in a majority-Muslim France. In order to prevent
this, he suggests halting immigration and eliminating the automatic
granting of citizenship to all children born in France. Of course, these
measures would not save France from the coming "white plague" of an aging
population, since her native population's birthrate is far below
replacement level.
* Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin used a major speech to
direct parliament to adopt a ten-year plan to raise the disastrously low
Russian birthrate. Russia's population is shrinking at about 700,000
annually, and could go from 143 million today to under 100 million by
2050-and with a much older, less economically productive population.
Saying "the situation is critical," Putin wants payments of up to US$9,000
for women who have a second child, longer maternity leaves, and more cash
and day-care subsidies for mothers. Since the average monthly income in
Russia is about $330, that sum to entice a second child is a considerable
one. But as a young Russian woman told the Christian Science Monitor (May
19), "A child is not an easy project, and in this world a woman is
expected to get an education, find a job, and make a career." Russia
cannot survive if her people continue in such attitudes. "If current
trends persist, there will be four dependents for every Russian worker by
2025," says Regional Development Minister Vladimir Yakovle. "Russia needs
a million new workers every year. If we don't get them, we can forget
about economic growth." Russia has an 80% divorce rate, making larger
families very difficult. The Russian parliament typically does whatever
Putin asks, so passage of his proposal is near-certain. Putin labeled
demography "Russia's most acute problem today," making him one of the most
acute heads of state in the world.
* The government of South Korea has decided to prioritize raising the
country's suicidal fertility rate of 1.2 children per woman. It has
allocated 33 trillion won (US$35 billion) to spend over the next five
years to address the nation's problems of a low birthrate and aging
population. The eventual goal is to achieve a birthrate of 1.6 by 2020,
still well below the replacement level of 2.1. About 80% of parents will
receive some sort of subsidy under the program. Unfortunately, the money
for this project will be raised by a special tax, which will increase the
burden on South Korea's economy and thus could decrease her birthrate in
the long run. And as the Korea Herald noted June 9, "Money alone,
however, cannot raise the birthrate. It is necessary for the government
to make legal and institutional changes as well if its policy is to bear
fruit. It may even have to attempt to change the culture in favor of
childbearing."
We can't help saying that the measures promoted above are unlikely to
improve the demographic situation much. Government subsidies to raise
birthrates have been tried already and found wanting. More radical,
systemic changes are needed: An end to the two-career norm and a return to
homemaking motherhood, far lower taxes on families with children, and a
culture that exalts family rather than denigrates it. However, small
efforts or simply discussion now could lead to larger efforts later.
Joseph A. D'Agostino is Vice President for Communications at the
Population Research Institute.
_____
PRI
P.O. Box 1559
Front Royal, Va. 22630
USA
Phone: (540) 622-5240 Fax: (540) 622-2728
Email: jad@pop.org
Media Contact: Joseph A. D'Agostino
(540) 622-5240, ext. 204
Website: www.pop.org
_________
(c) 2006 Population Research Institute. Permission to reprint granted.
Redistribute widely. Credit required.
_________
If you would like to make a tax-deductible donation to PRI, please go to
http://pop.org/donate.cfm. All donations
(of any size) are welcomed and
appreciated.
_________
To subscribe to the Weekly Briefing, go to:
http://pop.org/subscribe-weekly.cfm or email us at
pri@pop.org and say
"Add me to your Weekly Briefing."
__________
The pro-life Population Research Institute is dedicated to ending human
rights abuses committed in the name of "family planning," and to ending
counter-productive social and economic paradigms premised on the myth of
"overpopulation."