A study of all 176 Catholic dioceses in the United States has produced some surprising results. The top five dioceses in order are: Knoxville, TN, Savannah, GA, Kalamazoo, MI, Alexandria, LA, and Pensacola-Tallahassee, FL.

This ranking will undoubtedly be controversial, especially when many of the best-known and most venerable dioceses are at or near the bottom of the list.

"The State of the Catholic Church in America," by Steven Wagner and Rev. Rodger Hunter-Hall, was published in the February issue of Crisis magazine. The findings of Wagner and Hunter-Hall are based upon 2005 statistics of diocesan ordinations, adult conversions, and number of priests. This data is published by P.J. Kennedy & Sons each year in the Official Catholic Directory.

Many older dioceses, such as Boston, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Hartford were among the twenty lowest ranking dioceses. That such well-known dioceses received such a low ranking will be an eye-opener for Church leadership.

The contrast of the rankings of these larger dioceses with the success of small to moderate size dioceses led Wagner and Hunter-Hall to the conclusion that "there is a clear inverse linear relationship between the size of the diocese and the health of the diocese: As size increases vitality deteriorates."

Another conclusion drawn from the study was that the dioceses of the Northeast, in particular, are struggling. "Among the twenty-seven dioceses in the Northeast…the average ranking is 136." This ranking makes the Northeast region three times lower than other regions such as the Pacific Coast, the Midwest, the South, and the Rocky Mountains. What did Wagner and Hunter-Hall make of this? "The Church is…most healthy in that region that is traditionally the least hospitable to it…and is least healthy in that region where it has the longest history."

Some of the factors underlying the problems of old dioceses -- crumbling infrastructure, movement of the Catholic middle-class to the suburbs, immigration of baby-boomer Catholics to the South and Southwest--- fall outside the scope of the study. It's one challenge for a bishop to face the problem of Southern evangelicals seeking to "poach" Catholics out of parishes, and quite another to fund a century-old network of schools and hospitals with a shrinking base of committed laity.

These findings, needless to say, will create debate among Church watchers. To conclude that the oldest and largest dioceses in the United States are the least healthy is not going to be welcome news. And to promote the reputation of newer dioceses outside of the traditional centers of Catholic power will be resisted by those who want to keep their place at the head of the table.

Wagner and Hunter-Hall admit that their study has its limitations. "It is intended as a snapshot, not a comprehensive picture of what is going on in all 176 dioceses," says Wagner.

At a February 26 press conference in Washington, DC, the co-authors pointed out that there were significant data they would have liked to include in the study, but this data was not available. For example, they wanted to measure the vitality of the laity in the dioceses by factoring in mass attendance. However, mass attendance figures for each diocese are not available to the public. As Fr. Hunter-Hall said, "The Church is only as strong as its members' sacramental life." And as Wagner added, "We attempted to provide a first step in evaluating the best practices of dioceses based upon the objective data that was available."

Fr. Rodger Hunter-Hall was surprised by the results, particularly noting the success of the diocese of Tyler, Texas, created in 1980. "As a Texan I was surprised when the diocese of Tyler was carved out of the Archdiocese of Dallas. I questioned the wisdom of separating a diocese from the resources of Dallas. But we have seen that the bishop of a smaller diocese can have more of a direct impact on priests, education, and health care." The Archdiocese of Dallas was ranked 131 out of 176 compared to Tyler at 23.

The study will inevitably be criticized for its concentration on only two years of statistics; its comparison of 1995 to 2005. Wagner and Hunter-Hall concede that the scope of the study was somewhat limited. "Nonetheless," Wagner explains, "this study can be used as a management tool for the bishops to track their progress."

What will be perhaps the most controversial section of the study was its attempt to link diocesan vitality to the leadership of their bishops. Wagner and Hunter-Hall concluded, "There are striking commonalities among the most successful stewards of the American dioceses." They went on to summarize the similarities of successful bishops in the following way:

1. Successful bishops are joyful
2. Successful bishops assume personal responsibility for diocesan success or failure.
3. Successful bishops are unwilling to accept decline.
 

It's not a secret to anyone that bishops matter, but it is not common to start naming names. As a friend of mine commented to me after reading the study, "Bishops do not like to be scrutinized by the laity." Both Wagner and Hunter-Hall emphasized at the press conference that their intent was to offer support and encouragement to all bishops rather than putting all the praise and blame on their shoulders. "We know that there are other factors that are important in determining what happens in a diocese, but it is clear that ordinations, adult conversions, and number of clergy are directly influenced by the bishops' leadership."

Brian Saint Paul, editor of Crisis, plans to repeat this study, with some changes in methodology, in the coming years. "It will be important to see if the rankings change significantly, especially in regard to the larger and smaller dioceses," he said.

In the meantime, the Crisis study will generate much debate about what produces ordinations and conversions. Is it mainly due to the bishops? Is it the religious culture of the region? Is it the religious activism of the laity? Wagner and Hunter-Hall have begun an important public discussion regarding the future of the Church in the United States.

(The full report, "The State of the Catholic Church in America, Diocese by Diocese," can be read at http://crisismagazine.com/febmarch2007/hall.pdf.)

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